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Saturday, March 4, 2023
MTU Weekend Ed - Retested (3/3/23 close)
The retesting of the 2022 trendline has likely completed, for now.
Charts 1 & 2 above - in measuring the timing structure from the top if a B wave is there and the odds are give main EW seq going back yrs indicate - then the min time req for one were reached in the 14-20 Feb time window from the Nov 2021 top. However if its running to a latter time ratio then the date for final upward lift is in the last week of March. Tho enough waves cycling has been done to Feb as to what you usually see.
Given the prob of the EW seq it is a B, the if March is the end point then its likely to chop slightly upward into that time point.
Several years ago I did some working on what causes these choppy and sideways formations and it its tied in with working out time within price constraints.
The reason it is likely a B (as MTU asserts too) is because there are 5 wave of some seq to the Nov-Dec 2021 peak from 2016 low at least. Prob 2009 low too. That requires usually an A-B-C correction from it but there is clearly an neg impulse down to Oct 2022 forming an A (or neg1), the counter rally would be this B (or neg2), and C (or neg3) should follow.
Note also the if you measure from the 2020 low if that is a 5 up (and as Neely suggests and advance is due) then there should have been a same deg a-b-c to either Oct 22 low or recently, BUT there ISNT one visible. Only a neg 5 (forming MTU's A is clearly there) so that rules out on the EW count in my view this idea of a bull mkt trend resuming. Tho we must always factor in the possibility a distorted wave structure which we have seen at times before.
My ref to a B wave in 3rd paragraph I was also meaning a countertrend wave.
And by B, I also meant it was not prob the start of bull trend, with its wave 1 commencing Oct (as the 2022 decline to Oct looks like a 5, not a abc).
Based on theoretical EW rules counts.
And this is what MTU also thinks is prob.
Just remember when the main trend changes from 5 of 5 etc..the lower deg reversal wave is not an abc but a 5. The higher deg one will be a ABC, unless that 5 of 5 is part of larger deg 5 of 5 of 5 etc...
Charts 1 & 2 above - in measuring the timing structure from the top if a B wave is there and the odds are give main EW seq going back yrs indicate - then the min time req for one were reached in the 14-20 Feb time window from the Nov 2021 top. However if its running to a latter time ratio then the date for final upward lift is in the last week of March. Tho enough waves cycling has been done to Feb as to what you usually see.
ReplyDeleteGiven the prob of the EW seq it is a B, the if March is the end point then its likely to chop slightly upward into that time point.
Several years ago I did some working on what causes these choppy and sideways formations and it its tied in with working out time within price constraints.
The reason it is likely a B (as MTU asserts too) is because there are 5 wave of some seq to the Nov-Dec 2021 peak from 2016 low at least. Prob 2009 low too. That requires usually an A-B-C correction from it but there is clearly an neg impulse down to Oct 2022 forming an A (or neg1), the counter rally would be this B (or neg2), and C (or neg3) should follow.
Note also the if you measure from the 2020 low if that is a 5 up (and as Neely suggests and advance is due) then there should have been a same deg a-b-c to either Oct 22 low or recently, BUT there ISNT one visible. Only a neg 5 (forming MTU's A is clearly there) so that rules out on the EW count in my view this idea of a bull mkt trend resuming. Tho we must always factor in the possibility a distorted wave structure which we have seen at times before.
I didnt write the above comments clearly.
DeleteMy ref to a B wave in 3rd paragraph I was also meaning a countertrend wave.
And by B, I also meant it was not prob the start of bull trend, with its wave 1 commencing Oct (as the 2022 decline to Oct looks like a 5, not a abc).
Based on theoretical EW rules counts.
And this is what MTU also thinks is prob.
Just remember when the main trend changes from 5 of 5 etc..the lower deg reversal wave is not an abc but a 5. The higher deg one will be a ABC, unless that 5 of 5 is part of larger deg 5 of 5 of 5 etc...