Disclaimer: Each post is for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation, a recommendation or advice to buy or sell any security or investment product. Information provided in each post does not constitute investment advice.
Saturday, March 18, 2023
MTU Weekend Ed - Struggles at Support (3/17/23 close)
SPX probed the lower weekly BB and closed above its 2022 trendline.
Looking at NASDAQ 5yr chart which MTU might upload - what I note is that if the October 2022 was main low for bull trend to commence, the mkt should have powered up strongly since then but it hasnt (so far).
Similar comment applies to the others as well
Most indexes have 5 small waves down since the Feb high plus at least 2 same deg waves since.
Nasdaq could be in a different count - interestingly, the fall from its ATH can be tracked as wave four too. Recall that Nasdaq did not make a lower low in 2008/2009? - something which stood out then but conveniently assumed away. See this long term chart https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=M&st=1965-01-01&en=today&i=p91733516634
Thats a valid point MTU about NASDAQ if you count from that start of NASDAQ trading in 1971.
But the question is are these mkts separated like that for their LT count ? The fact is tho that when the DJIA SPX head south or north so does NASDAQ despite price and vibrational and slightly timing differentials.
In some respect you might argue that on NASDAQ 1971-2000 is wave wave 1, 2000-2009 is a wave 2, 2009-2021 is wave 3 and current move is a 4 in progress.
BUT the above comment about unison still applies.
AND there isnt an a-b-c in the past 15 months - it looks like a-b with C in progress to complete this 4 if in fact it is a 4.
What is 2021 is the big 5 from 1971 ?* and its in a 5 of a large A wave ?
*That could be argued if waves 1-2 from 1971 are in the 1971-1981 or 1988/90 period, wave 3 is from 1982 or 1988/90 to 2000, Wave 4 is 2000-2009. And wave 5 if from 2009.
Id like to see the NASDAQ chart from 1971 to 1990-2000 clearly before I make determination on the count on it.
I also dont think the issue of whether NASDAQ got lower in 2009 than SPX etc.. is relevant because from my vast experience the price levels arent entirely relevant and can throw you out on counts many times.
I know of many examples when a correction should got to 50% or .618 area and it doesnt but the timing is right then it resumes trend - so if you were relying on the price target you'd still be waiting for the bus, taxi, tram or rickshaw etc... depending on where you live.
Same with peaks on tops and bottoms for wave 3 or 5 terminal points. Sometimes it doesnt reach it or other times it will go over it and you end up in bull or bear trap.
Can you explain to me why you think the low in 2009 is critical ?
MTU, on your comment of the NASDAQ chart about wave 4, I note the timing issue .
If you are saying wave 2 is 2000-2009 (??), being 9 years, with wave 3 = 2009-2021, then your wave 4 should be at least 2-3 years duration. It has only clocked off 15 months and as I said looks like a-b wave so far.
Looking at NASDAQ 5yr chart which MTU might upload - what I note is that if the October 2022 was main low for bull trend to commence, the mkt should have powered up strongly since then but it hasnt (so far).
ReplyDeleteSimilar comment applies to the others as well
Most indexes have 5 small waves down since the Feb high plus at least 2 same deg waves since.
Nasdaq could be in a different count - interestingly, the fall from its ATH can be tracked as wave four too. Recall that Nasdaq did not make a lower low in 2008/2009? - something which stood out then but conveniently assumed away. See this long term chart https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=M&st=1965-01-01&en=today&i=p91733516634
DeleteThats a valid point MTU about NASDAQ if you count from that start of NASDAQ trading in 1971.
DeleteBut the question is are these mkts separated like that for their LT count ? The fact is tho that when the DJIA SPX head south or north so does NASDAQ despite price and vibrational and slightly timing differentials.
In some respect you might argue that on NASDAQ 1971-2000 is wave wave 1, 2000-2009 is a wave 2, 2009-2021 is wave 3 and current move is a 4 in progress.
BUT the above comment about unison still applies.
AND there isnt an a-b-c in the past 15 months - it looks like a-b with C in progress to complete this 4 if in fact it is a 4.
What is 2021 is the big 5 from 1971 ?* and its in a 5 of a large A wave ?
*That could be argued if waves 1-2 from 1971 are in the 1971-1981 or 1988/90 period, wave 3 is from 1982 or 1988/90 to 2000, Wave 4 is 2000-2009. And wave 5 if from 2009.
Id like to see the NASDAQ chart from 1971 to 1990-2000 clearly before I make determination on the count on it.
I also dont think the issue of whether NASDAQ got lower in 2009 than SPX etc.. is relevant because from my vast experience the price levels arent entirely relevant and can throw you out on counts many times.
DeleteI know of many examples when a correction should got to 50% or .618 area and it doesnt but the timing is right then it resumes trend - so if you were relying on the price target you'd still be waiting for the bus, taxi, tram or rickshaw etc... depending on where you live.
Same with peaks on tops and bottoms for wave 3 or 5 terminal points. Sometimes it doesnt reach it or other times it will go over it and you end up in bull or bear trap.
Can you explain to me why you think the low in 2009 is critical ?
Chart 1 - I note MTUs first red B wave is about 0.382 in time of the red A wave.
ReplyDeleteMTU, on your comment of the NASDAQ chart about wave 4, I note the timing issue .
ReplyDeleteIf you are saying wave 2 is 2000-2009 (??), being 9 years, with wave 3 = 2009-2021, then your wave 4 should be at least 2-3 years duration. It has only clocked off 15 months and as I said looks like a-b wave so far.