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Saturday, April 25, 2020
MTU Weekend Ed - Probing (4/24/20 close)
SPX continues to probe its 2018-19 support resistance zone with very mild reactions so far (Chart 1). Chart 2 updates near term tracking scenarios.
A long term chart of the Dow Jones Transportation Average
A bellwether index to be looking at in all this is DJT - Dow Transport.
A 40yr chart indicates 5 waves from 2009 to Jan 2018 top with 3 waves since forming either and A B C, or neg 1 2 3 out of 5.
The question is, given the long run up for 170yrs or so and prob 5 waves unfolded so far this has a bearing on the MT move, which would imply not an ABC but a 5 down to form a larger deg A wave. I lean to the view it probably did end 5 of 5 in 2018 so an ABC correction is out.
If correct then its going to be a bleak 2020s with the mkt zig-zaging net down or at best sideways.
But we do need to see what happens in the next 12mths to get a clearer picture of this.
MTU- what does the super LT count on DJT say ? (if you could get hold of the chart going back to 1840s Railroad Index) we could see the count better.
From 1932 low we have good min req for 5 wave to 2020.
From 1942 low possible min req for 5 waves exist to 2020.
From Neely's 1949 low the count of 5 to 1966-69 doesnt tally at all as theres no 5 from 49 to 66/69.
Interestingly the 1969 top to 1974 is 5 yrs (for a simple a-b-c) and the 1999 top to 2009 low is 10 years (for a complex extnd a-b-c forming a double wave seq). Proportionate time rel.
The only question is on this is the wave from 2009 completed ? Finished or will it extend ?
It also not clear from this chart whether 2020 would be wave 3 or 5 from the 1850s when railroad or other stks started trading. So on long waves we cant make a clear assessment.
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A bellwether index to be looking at in all this is DJT - Dow Transport.
ReplyDeleteA 40yr chart indicates 5 waves from 2009 to Jan 2018 top with 3 waves since forming either and A B C, or neg 1 2 3 out of 5.
The question is, given the long run up for 170yrs or so and prob 5 waves unfolded so far this has a bearing on the MT move, which would imply not an ABC but a 5 down to form a larger deg A wave. I lean to the view it probably did end 5 of 5 in 2018 so an ABC correction is out.
If correct then its going to be a bleak 2020s with the mkt zig-zaging net down or at best sideways.
But we do need to see what happens in the next 12mths to get a clearer picture of this.
MTU- what does the super LT count on DJT say ? (if you could get hold of the chart going back to 1840s Railroad Index) we could see the count better.
This may be a guide for DJIA & SPX
Mkt Man, added a long term chart of the DJT in the post for your review
DeleteThx - LT DJT shows-
DeleteFrom 1932 low we have good min req for 5 wave to 2020.
From 1942 low possible min req for 5 waves exist to 2020.
From Neely's 1949 low the count of 5 to 1966-69 doesnt tally at all as theres no 5 from 49 to 66/69.
Interestingly the 1969 top to 1974 is 5 yrs (for a simple a-b-c) and the 1999 top to 2009 low is 10 years (for a complex extnd a-b-c forming a double wave seq). Proportionate time rel.
The only question is on this is the wave from 2009 completed ? Finished or will it extend ?
It also not clear from this chart whether 2020 would be wave 3 or 5 from the 1850s when railroad or other stks started trading. So on long waves we cant make a clear assessment.
DeleteDo you need Personal Loan?
ReplyDeleteBusiness Cash Loan?
Unsecured Loan
Fast and Simple Loan?
Quick Application Process?
Approvals within 24-72 Hours?
No Hidden Fees Loan?
Funding in less than 1 Week?
Get unsecured working capital?
Contact Us At
Email us: financialserviceoffer876@gmail.com
Whats App +918929509036