Here we go.
Chart 1 - ES expanding EDT wave (C) still on the table. Today's low on the March contract is 2274.75 - getting close to the expanding EDT spec.
SPX cash tracking counts update
[green] EDT wave (C)-down.
[red] Impulse down from the ATH
[blue] Zigzag down from the ATH to (C) or [3]
Misc Observations -
ReplyDeleteOverall the move the past month has been in effect the same as Aug to Oct 1987 but instead of one bad day like then its been over a few weeks. Approx similar % decline so far from the peak.
Using that as a guide to the big picture arises 2 questions - are the current levels akin to the position it was in in Nov 87 - Feb 1988, ie a great buying opportunity - or is it the start of a bear mkt for few months or years ?
There was nothing fundamentally wrong with the economy in 1987 - 88 as there is now apart from ST jolt from the CV-19 hysteria.
Im just raising this point because I recall late 87 - 88 when everyone including EWI was in gloom mode but the mkt rose to 1990 and recovered the high. After the Kuwait crisis it then resume slow bull mkt trend for the next 9 yrs. The only timing diff is the mkt had been in bull trend for 5yrs in 87, not 11 yrs as was 2 mths ago.
It will depend when the low of this wave is reached and I dont think its current wave is far off.
In 1988 only Neely was saying up up and away, but given the move from 1982 and 1932 where there is min req for 5 waves, will that apply this time ?
As of this time many stks & indexes have come back to their 2016 lows - note Boeing, DAX etc... which is the tech buy support level. Others are around std 50% tracement levels eg 3M Cisco.
Like to hear MTU's view re the comparison of now to 1987-88.
Like chart 3 the most - https://imgur.com/a/b3sVky8
ReplyDeleteExplains all this zig-zags.
Zig-zag up plus zig-zag lower is not reversal.
The markets are heading into 9 year cycle low in 2-3 months.
I do not see bear market - last hooray for 2-2.5 years.
Your chart is in essence what I ve been saying for the past 2 days. Yes I would agree some type of timing turn takes place in 2-3 mths time.
DeleteThis 9 year cycle countback = 2011, 2002, but nothing in 1993.
One other relevant observation as to what wave this is (ie a C of and a-b-c, or 3 of a 5) in terms of the main waves.
ReplyDeleteSome DJIA stks made top in Jan 2018 (eg MMM) and have now retraced to 50% or approx .618 AFTER having run up from 2009 5 waves which makes this leg down the past month or so a C wave.
Other stks - maimly tech ones - made final highs in Jan of prob 5 waves up. This makes it their A wave.
But the question is is the current level the completion of the 5 subwaves of that C or A wave ?
Stks prob will bottom today and not retest the recent low is my suspicion on this wave theyre in now. Equinox 21 Mar tomorrow.
Note the crude oil has also rallied just after my comment yesterday.