In light of the overnight sell-off, here are the updated tracking counts.
Diagonal triangle down if low around here holds. (blue - (D) is short in duration and ended at the close on Mar 10th)
A third wave if the crash continues meaningfully. (red)
The immediately bearish scenario discussed yesterday likely played out (Chart 1 red). SPX had a minor lower low but the low in ES was not breached.
Now that key indices retested their lows today, potentially successfully, a rebound to correct the sell-off looks probable. Keep an eye on the larger degree tracking counts (which remain unchanged as of now) and various overhead resistances (Chart 2 SPX and Chart 3 ES). Note the positive divergence on the daily chart, which has been present over the past few days.
Regarding the immediately bearish potential - if today's small-degree decline should extend, keep an eye on the 200-week SMA (currently at 2640 in SPX)
Chart 2 Today -
ReplyDeleteSteady decline seq there is consistent with the view it is wave 5 but if it is wave i of a red 3 (per my alt count) then it is also possible. That is tho a less probable scenario.
I have no view one way or another but we should note the many Dow stks are still at high levels like MSFT.
Chart 3 Today -
As you can see from Chart 3 above the retracement of this decline from the Feb peak is now below 50% to the .382 level indicating possible bear mkt commencement impulse wave down.
We still need to have in the back of our minds the possibility this move might be part of a large deg wave 2 or 4 from some type of unorthodox count from either 2009 or 2016 low and factor in covering any positions you have accordingly. If so more downside would be coming at least back to the Dec 2018 lows. Given the run some indexes have had since 2009 eg DJIA & NASDAQ this is a less prob scenario.
There is two legs lower with the same size - zig-zag.
ReplyDeleteThose two legs itself consist of zig-zags.
I can not see any impulse.
If you count impulse, you have to count 1-2 i-ii and it will stretch so much lower you have to count the bull market is over.
How it is over with a zig-zag higher? Or RUT for example reversal from 2009 with a clear zig-zag???
We have corrective structure which will be completed June/July with 4 year cycle low then the final leg of the bull market begins.
The neg impulse is distorted on some of the US indexes and is clearer in eg UKX. That last rally Jan Feb may be a overly strong wave 2 of the neg 5, with the true 0 start point being the Jan peak in US indexes. Still not clear yet.
DeleteYou must remember that one of the waves in a 5 will be extended. Its usually wave 3 but can be 5 or even 1.
Your June theory is always possible.
But there are min req for 5 waves up to the 2018 or 2020 peak from 2009, 1982 and 1932. And other MT & LT cycles also usually are neg in this time window.