We speculated yesterday that "closing above those lines likely signals a short term bottom." SPX closed above the blue line on the weekly chart today. The main tracking counts remain the same. See Chart 1.
But keep an eye on the possibility of an contracting diagonal triangle down, which we discussed yesterday, which requires a wave (E)-down once this potential wave (D)-up is done. (Chart 2 blue).
The immediately bearish scenarios would be a small-degree wave 5 down (Chart 2 red), which fits ES/SPX and NDX, but not INDU.
MTU's chart 2 comment:- ALT Count
ReplyDeleteMTU's red [2] should be a, and red 2 be c.
That gives us 1 with a possible missing 2 (??), then 3 & 4 of a neg impulse down still in progress possibly.
So red 4 will be either the missing red 2 or MTU's 4.
If red 4 is a neg impulse 2 (which an unusual gap separation between close & open over 2 days) then wave 3 of 3 or C is unfolding now.
Also .... Chart 2
ReplyDeleteMTU's red 2 is too large in price & time to be a corrective rally countertrend for the size of wave 1. Thats why I took the view another count is possible.
Red 1 on the chart also appears to be an a-b-c and 2 a 1-5 impulse which is contrary to EW obv.
Would like to hear MTU's response to that point.
Note that the Dow has a slightly higher high at the red 2 in SPX as noted in Chart 2. This is one of the reasons that this count is a minor alternative count.
DeleteAlso, if [2]/[B] starts at the red 2 (as in the blue count in chart 2 or those in chart 1), the next wave down (if comes) is likely a small degree fifth wave of the red 1-down.
The correct position I believe for red [1] is the higher low slightly to the right as I said in previous comment a few days ago and implied above.
DeleteI think todays large down move (WED 11 Mar US time - neg 1600pts DJIA as I write) prob indicates that the wave red 3 I was talking about is happening especially if it accelerates over the next few days. Otherwise its red 5 down after your red 4. What bothers me is the gap 3 days ago and the missing wave red 2 in my count, as your red 3 appears to be missing a proper size wave i (unless its an amplified expanding neg i-v).
Chart 2
ReplyDeleteWhat if your red 3 & 4 is really red 1 & 2 ?
If so mkt is wave 3 of 3 or C of larger deg and that wave often is a mega wave.
Also int to note that all this from Feb 2020 has been happening 33.5 yrs from the 1987 Aug peak (= 2 x 16.8 yrs).
UKX on todays close shows 5 waves down but DAX & US Indexes 1 & 2 plus a possible i & ii of 3.
Error - not 33.5 yrs from Aug 1987 but 32.5 yrs. But on the edge of the ball part allowing for variations.
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