Tracking counts. A large contracting EDT wave (C)-down has the best visual form so far (Chart 1 purple, Chart 2). The floor is 2016.6 as labeled on the chart.
An expanding EDT wave [5]-down requires another leg lower to exceed 2184.51 (Chart 1 red, Chart 3). The numbers for a contracting EDT wave [5]-down do not work out (missed by about 2 index points at today's low.)
Then there is the possibility of a complex wave [4]-up to take up more time and to alternate with wave [2]-up for the impulse count (Chart 1 blue).
Here we go, see previous updates for discussion.
US Indexes 11.50am NY time 23 March
ReplyDeleteI just happened to logon and note what everyone else should see is min req for 5 waves down from the peak MTU has the red [4] on 13 March. And that wave would be possibly the 5th down from the 4 March peak, which itself may be a 5 or a 3/C.
Unless there's an expanding seq running this could mark the low zone of this drive down for the moment.
I get email ads from EWI but dont subscribe to them and they referred to something about be ready for "wave 3 of 3" the other day but I cant see where they would get that from on the type of analysis I do which is past on past observed moves and EW theory.
End of Day Charts 1 -3
ReplyDeleteWe must realize there is distortion in the wave action since 9 March. My comments about this below.
That red (3) - (4) bwtn 10-11 Mar with the gap before it is some quirk of price action and if we assume those points should be higher and that gap translated below it then you get a proper wave below it which I regard as a 3 from the 4 March peak.
Given this then my wave 4 has to be between MTUs red [3] and blue (4) somewhere. Which means 5 is either in progress still or possibly completed.
MTUs EDT channel is not really the way to view this as the spike peak on 13 March is another quirk and we need to really view this as being in a flat flag channel sloping down.
Given what we see there the low of this wave is either very close (been/tomorrow) or 2 days away.
Then arises the q whether the move so far is 3 waves or 5 from the peak in Jan/Feb.
Chart 1
ReplyDeleteAn alternative count I just noticed is wave 3 from 4 March could be the low on 17 March and 4 the first blue [4] MTU has marked. How far the 5 then has progressed is still the q but it is close to min req.
With the FED about to flood the money mkts with $4 trillion it reminds me of Greenspan's 1987 response.
NUMBERS
ReplyDeleteMTUs comment about the indexes not reaching price targets - we should expect given that the waves have been distorted for several years that ideal target number will not be met.
Also that the old price numbers will not match up with the new in terms of ratios etc... particulalr those for tops and bottoms before 1995.
I myself only look at approx price ranges and timing. WD Gann had a lot of trouble predicting price targets at times and then only relied on timing dates. My rule is "Near enough is good enough".