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Thursday, January 31, 2019
Thursday Update (1/31/19)
Extended third wave of an impulse or of wave C (blue) likely. Expanded flat for a wave B/2 if possible (red).
A review of LT 10yr + charts on various US Indexes prima facie on a orthodox EW count indicates the main trend has turned down from the Jan 2018 peak.
This is shown on NYA MID with 0.382 retracements of the advance from the 2016 low along with 5 wave neg waves down in the sub waves. Also confirmed by DAX and to a lesser extent UKX. Many stks also show similar.
But this is not confirmed(yet?)on DJIA, SPX & NASDAQ where over 50% retracements are shown indicating possibility of more upside.
The massive blow off on NASDAQ from the 2009 low with 3 sections up indicating possible 5 wave there should cause alarm bells to ring with all technical experts and investors.
MTU, I ask this question - how reliable are NYA & MID to showing the true mkt trend compared to DJIA SPX NASDAQ ? Have in the past they signalled the correct trend ?
The main trend question at this junction of Feb 2018 is has this enormous bull mkt that started in 2009, 1982 or even 1932 peaked in 2018 and a slow declining trend started ? or is it merely doing a corrective congestion phase for another final run up (ie currently doing wave 4 on some deg level now) or some supercycle advance to astronomocal highs in decades from now ?
A review of LT 10yr + charts on various US Indexes prima facie on a orthodox EW count indicates the main trend has turned down from the Jan 2018 peak.
ReplyDeleteThis is shown on NYA MID with 0.382 retracements of the advance from the 2016 low along with 5 wave neg waves down in the sub waves. Also confirmed by DAX and to a lesser extent UKX. Many stks also show similar.
But this is not confirmed(yet?)on DJIA, SPX & NASDAQ where over 50% retracements are shown indicating possibility of more upside.
The massive blow off on NASDAQ from the 2009 low with 3 sections up indicating possible 5 wave there should cause alarm bells to ring with all technical experts and investors.
MTU, I ask this question - how reliable are NYA & MID to showing the true mkt trend compared to DJIA SPX NASDAQ ? Have in the past they signalled the correct trend ?
The main trend question at this junction of Feb 2018 is has this enormous bull mkt that started in 2009, 1982 or even 1932 peaked in 2018 and a slow declining trend started ? or is it merely doing a corrective congestion phase for another final run up (ie currently doing wave 4 on some deg level now) or some supercycle advance to astronomocal highs in decades from now ?
Error - juncture is Feb 2019 not 2018.
ReplyDeletesee 2019 outlook for wave 4 correction or reversal tracking.
ReplyDeleteETF and nonstock securities tend to dilute NYA's correlation with SPX etc
MID can diverge from OEX