Saturday, February 2, 2019

MTU Month-End Ed. - Rebound (2/1/19)

The rebound in SPX has now recovered a Fid-0.618 of the 2018Q4 decline. The structure of the rebound likely a three-wave structure so far (Chart 1 ES) and can be tracked as a counter-trend wave (X) or wave D of a diagonal (Chart 2 SPX).

Chart 3 and Chart 4 present our long-term bullish and bearish tracking discussed in the 2019 Outlook.

1 comment:

  1. See my overview yesterday

    For DJIA SPX NASDAQ Im not sure whether we should consider the Sep 2018 peak as the true end of wave 5 from the 2016 low as it may be a B type wave that gone higher than rules say. The true peak may be the Jan 2018 peak unless an extended wave seq is running.

    DAX and broader US indexes NYA MID others are showing negative bias.

    Prechters EWI put out warning today of potential $trillion corporate debt bomb. And we know that money mkt problems usually implode the stk mkt.

    We really have to ask do we rely on std EW patterns & rules to determine the probable position, or do we have faith and believe the sky is the limit like Neely ?

    If money flows leave the mkt to go into the real economy then prices may sag or be static.

    On timing we will need to see where the mkt end up from mid to late March to determine the trend. If the mkt break up after then more MT upside is possible.