Sunday, January 6, 2019

MTU Weekend Ed. - Rebounding (1/4/19 close)

U.S. stocks are rebounding, likely correcting the three-wave decline since the all-time high (Chart 1).  Minor support and resistance levels are around 2505 and 2560 respectively.  Major support and resistance levels are around 2440 and 2700 respectively.  In addition there is the 2645-2660 range associated with the 50SMA and mid-BB. 

The rebound is also a three-wave structure so far.  As more price action becomes available, we can track the rebound associated with the long-term bull/bear scenarios highlighted in 2019 Outlook (12/31/18).

From a bearish perspective, while it's possible that the current rebound is wave [iv]-up relative to the 11/7/18 high (Chart 2 blue) , the fact that Nasdaq has overlapped its 11/20/18 low reduces the associated likelihood.  It the rebound is a fourth wave, it's more likely to be a larger degree wave 4 basis the all time high (Chart 2 green) - wave 4 could well be a triangle.  Equally if not more important,  the rebound could be a small-degree wave [ii]-up (Chart 2 red).

Chart 3 tracks the previous decline as an ABC and the current rebound as part of (X)-up or a new upswing (starting with a leading diagonal).

1 comment:

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