Saturday, November 8, 2014

MTU Weekend Ed. - Terminal Move (11/7/14 close)

Benchmark stock indexes indeed made new record highs and SP500 is at the first Fib target of 2013 (see Monthly Outlook Update (10/31/14)).

The impressive advance boasting 6 unfilled upward gaps in SP500 from its October low is likely ending (Chart 1, green or red), with perhaps one more higher high this coming week (Chart 2 green). Near term upside appears to be capped by 2045.

In Chart 3, we track the pending high as the blue wave (5) of [3] or [C] (or wave 1 of (5) if wave (5) decides to extend following a pullback) or as the red wave (D) or (B) of [4].  See Monthly Outlook Update (10/31/14) for details.

As such, a (potentially deep) pullback is likely. Based on these scenarios, the October low survives only if wave (5) extends.  One would have to read the next downswing to assess the likelihood that wave (5) would extend.  In the meantime, it should be noted that while the proposed wave (5) has reached a comfortable Fib relation with wave (1) in price, at 3-4 weeks,  it is remarkably short in duration if it a turn is indeed at hand.