Friday, September 28, 2012

MTU Weekend Ed. - Rebound (9/28/12 Close)

Countdown (9/21/12) proposed a logical spot for a top ( black point number 5 in our Hope Rally model, Chart 1) if a small-degree 5th wave at that time did not extend further.  We observed that “while there are other ways to count the advance as incomplete, a breach of Thursday's low (1449.98 in SPX on 9/20/12) is likely a bearish indication at a larger degree.”

A week later, SPX did breach 1449.98 and has made further progress to the downside (to as low as 1433.32) and the Dow closed solidly below the upper trend line of a proposed EDT/wedge in what appears to be a five wave decline from a truncated high (Chart 2, red).

So trend-reversal watch is on.

However, price structures of the decline across leading indexes also suggest the possibility of a corrective pullback. For example,
[1] From the orthodox high, SPX fails to make a lower low on Friday to complete a five-wave decline, presenting a potential bullish divergence.
[2] From the nominal high, the Dow has so far traced out a corrective flat decline, the SPX a double three pullback and NDX a zigzag sell-off.

So the jury is still out regarding a trend reversal until further development. But a near term rebound is likely in progress or in sight.

The best candidate for a corrective decline would be a 4th wave correction with uncertain degree (Chart 2 INDU -blue and green, Chart 3 NDX - blue and green). Whether it is wave 4 or wave [iv] of wave 3 depends on how much one rushes his count. And the correction is likely approaching its end.

The second best candidate for a corrective decline would be the decline toward black point number 6 in our Hope Rally model (Chart 1). In this case, the correction is likely far from over.

Finally, Chart 4 updates the advance/decline line associated with SP500. The current sell-off has taken its toll on market internals.