Chart 1 presents the tracking count since the June low, the advance toward the black point #5 in our Hope Rally model.
Recent sideways move is now too lengthy in an ideal situation to be blue wave [iv] and the retrace from Friday's high too deep in an indeal situation to be blue wave (ii) of [v]5 - although respective EWP rules are still satisfied.
Thus, if the market continues to move sideways, one should overweight the more bullish count green count where wave 3-up off the June low is extending and [iv]-down of 3-up is in progress in a potential triangle/double three formation.
Chart 2 counts the bearish case from the recent orthodox high.
[815am] ES update -
Deep retrace in ES. Wave[iv] could still be in progress, A - expanding triangle B - C (Chart 1). Otherwise, swing down at a larger degree, either a trend change (black point #5 in our hope rally model - see Countdown (9/21/12) ) or wave [iv] of an extended wave 3 off the June low (Chart 2).
