Thursday, December 8, 2011

Market Timing Update (12/8/11)

[EOD] from an ES perspective -
Here's the assessment from a futures (ES - december) perspective, where we play the "where-is-the-top" game once more.

[red- bearish] A topped at 1262.75. C topped at the AM high of 1272. It's all the way downhill from here.

[blue - "immediately" bullish] A topped at 1266.25. B is an expanding triangle approaching its end. New high next.

[purple - bullish] A topped at 1268. B is a flat approaching its end OR B is a more complex structure (flat - X - three).

[EOD] Stocks -
At the open, we observed that SPX has a chance to reach Dan's virgin box area. The market is now at the edge of the box at the close (Chart 1).

Chart 1 offers a (red) count where the market has topped following a double zigzag rebound (with truncation). This count corresponds to the red count in Chart 2 which zooms out.

Chart 3 to the right offers squiggle counts on the decline to go with Chart 1.

[335pm] SPX squiggles -
see 2nd chart below
[935am] SPX update -
Has a chance to reach Dan's virgin box area.

[840am] ES update -

Higher high on data and news. Pullback over (blue) or expanded flat (red).
[7am] DAX, ES update -
ES - yesterday's PM ramp did not register a higher high. No higher high during the overnight session either. Let's see what the AM pre-market ramp does.
ES/DAX - at the same time, no clear downward count either. A bunch of threes for some time.
Bank of England - rates unchanged