Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Market Timing Update (12/14/11)

[EOD] Stocks -
Odds appear to favor (at least) a local low. See the 225pm entry for details on SPX/ES - there's little change into the close, except for a squiggle lower low.

Chart 1 on DAX is telling as well - blue or green count, double three complete. Is it only an initial wave W down? We'll find out soon.

Remember the triangles of maximum confusion discussed in recent MTU weekend editions? (Chart 2) It's possible that the current decline is the RED triangle - i.e. wave (e)-donw of B-down of (B)-up. If so, wave C-up of (B)-up since the October low is next. So the Nov low is (half) important, half because the current decline could be only wave c-down of (c)-down for the triangle.

[225pm] ES, SPX update -
0.618 retrace in DAX and 0.5 retrace in SPX/ES. If the decline is indeed corrective, its low is likely here or very nearby based on the green count in ES from its nominal high in the form of a zigzag (5-3-EDT).

[710am] DAX, ES update -
DAX - zigzag or (i)/(ii)/i near completion, at least a small degree rebound likely.