Monday, December 19, 2011

Market Timing Update (12/19/11)

[PS] GDOW update -
The following chart refreshes Chart 2 (GDOW) of Make or Break (12/16/2011).
With today's price action,
(red, bearish) Barring a crash, wave 3 does not appear to be extending. So we put a wave 5 around today's low. Note, as labeled, wave 5 cannot extend very far as wave 3 is shorter than wave 1.
(blue, bullish) The best count at the moment is probably a triple zigzag, running out of space at the 1687.64 low.

[EOD] Stocks -
The afternoon plunge pairs nicely with the void in DAX (see 12pm entry).
ES counts as a triple-three or an impulse down, probably complete.
SPX counts well as a triple-three from the orth. high (blue) or a double three from the nominal high (blue).  Bearish counts requires more creativity at this stage (see red and purple) due to the initial overlap.

[12pm] DAX update -
Lower low, adding weight to the impulse decline count. Paris CAC looks worse and London FTSE does not look much better. That said, the minimum requirement for a 1-down or A-down has been met.

see Make or Break (12/16/11) for additional details.

[715am] DAX, ES update -
Corrective count says that a triple-three is complete in DAX and is most likely complete in ES as well with a truncation.
It's possible to count the overnight low as the end of an initial impulse decline from the nominal high in DAX (purple) and ES (red). But one more 5th wave down appears to offer better wave form.