Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Market Timing Update (6/29/11)

[EOD] Stocks -
Current assessment - Cash indexes are finishing up the first three from the nominal low or the first impulse from the orthodox low (Chart 1 on WLSH). It's getting increasingly unlikely that the rebound is part of the recent decline (i.e. wave [iv]-up). ES is likely tracing out an expanded flat (or triangle, less likely) small-degree 4th wave (Chart 2). Also see yesterday's EOD update for discussions on the larger count.
[245pm] ES squiggles -
See the 2nd chart below
[1145am] Count update (WLSH) -
Overlap in WLSH this AM. Odds favor this rebound being (i) or [a], see yesterday's EOD update for details.
[8am] Overnight update (ES) -
Month end and MA50