Thursday, June 23, 2011

Market Timing Update (6/23/11)

[EOD] Stocks -
The 200-day MA held (Chart 1). There are three competing scenarios.
[1] The June low is the bottom, either as the end of the correction since the Feb high or the end of the initial decline from a significant top at the May high (Chart 1). So the rebound is the start of a new bull cycle or a wave 2/B retrace.

[2] The rebound from today's low is wave (ii) of [v]-down (Chart 2).
Since NDX has made a higher high, it's possible that today's high is (c)-up of [iv]-up.

[3] Finally, there's the QE fractal discussed in recent weeks. Chart 3 offers an update - the market appears to be in a wave 6 rebound as marked the chart. This time, wave 6 may or may not get as high as wave 4 during QE1/2.

[1240pm] Squiggle update (ES) -

[830am] Overnight update (ES) -
ES likely to test the wedge trend line, now a potential support.
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