Thursday, June 16, 2011

Market Timing Update (6/16/11)

[EOD] stocks -
No change to the 3pm assessment (see below). Wedge and non-wedge counts offered in the following charts.
[3pm] Count update (SPX,ES)-
To follow up on the count in the overnight update ...
SPX is approaching the end of a wedge-like structure since its May high. It's likely C-down of an expanded flat since the Feb high on the bullish side or wave [i]-down or A-down from the nominal high on the bearish side. On the bearish side, odds favor a rebound (as wave [ii]-up) over a 3 or 3 crash without a meaningful rebound.

[740am] Overnight update (ES, DX) -
Potential wedges at a number of degrees in ES, look for an overthrow. For reference, 1240-1245 in Sept ES is where [e]=0.618[c] and (c) of [e] = 0.618 (a) of [e].