Monday, January 31, 2011

Market Timing Update (1/31/11)

[EOD] Two observations

[1] The rebound looks more corrective than impulsive so far in both cash and futures (Chart 1 and Chart 2). It's too early to rule out either one of these possibilities. On the corrective count, the rebound is either a 2nd wave if market has topped, a wave b or a wave x.

[2] The green count in Chart 3 highlights a potentially overlooked possibility, one that extends the larger degree waves. It's prudent not to rule it out prematurely - beware of extension at a larger degree. (in addition to the possibility that the dip being [iv] of 5 discussed last week).

Under that scenario, Friday's low in cash (and Sunday's low in futures) is an expanded flat wave (w) of [iv] of minor wave.

The current rebound is wave (x) of [iv], which can either end below or above the recent high, to be followed by wave (y)-down of [iv].

[1110am] USD index squiggles -
Not the best looking five down, just an attempt.
[720am] Overnight update -