Thursday, January 20, 2011

Market Timing Update (1/20/11)

[ES squiggles]

[EOD] Key observations:
[1] Squiggles from the recent high counts well as a five-down with an extended fifth wave, with the exception of the structure in INDU. The implications are informative:

(a) The advance since the early December 2010 pivot low (which is [ii] of 5) ended at the recent high (which is [iii] of 5).

The current decline is (a) of [iv] with additional downside potential which should be floored by the early December 2010 high.

The rebound from today's low has met its minimum requirement but is likely not complete given an extended fifth wave.

(b) The advance since the December 2010 pivot low (which is 4 and thus since the July low) ended at the recent high (which is 5).

The wave structure of the decline in INDU counts well as a triple zigzag under the bullish interpretation or a leading diagonal under the bearish interpretation (Chart 1).

An update on the larger count - topped or a fourth wave in progress
Charts 2 to 4 update the larger count in SPX, INDU and NDX.

Of particular note is the NDX counts. Given the relative size of the waves, the current top can "only" be the end of minor wave 5 which is bearish OR the end of (a weak) wave (iii) of 3 which is bullish.

As a follow up to yesterday's discussion, in addition to an initial five-down in the NDX squiggles, the size of the decline is now too large to emphasize the 2268.30 level. The recent high is a top of some sort at a larger degree as indicated in today's chart.

[Overnight update]