Friday, July 23, 2010

MTU Weekend Ed. - Bull Trap (7/23/10 Close)

Primary counts place the rebound since the July 1st low (1010.91 in SPX) as [ii]-up of 3-down of (1)-down, OR 2-up of (1)-down. See these counts as labeled red and blue in Chart 1. So either [iii] of 3-down OR 3-down (after 2-up is complete) likely comes next.

Thus the current advance in stocks is likely a bull trap. The difference is in the magnitude of the retrace.

[RED] If the advance is [ii] of 3 of (1)-down, it’s just about over. The 6/21 high (1131.23 in SPX) cannot be exceeded under this interpretation.
[1] We have a potential ending diagonal (which is likely missing a small final upward push) as depicted in Chart 2 and Chart 3.
[2] There are 21/22 trading days between the 4/26/10 top and the 5/25/10 low (that's wave 1-down according to this count). July 26 (next Monday) is its second anniversary.
[3] To match this scenario, the VIX is likely tracing out its final ending diagonal down (Chart 4).

[BLUE] If the advance is 2 of (1)-down, a deep retrace is likely. The 6/21 high (1131.23 in SPX) is most likely to be exceeded under this interpretation, and remains a hedging-point for those who have bearish exposure.
[1] Either a series of 1s and 2s within [c] of 2 is in progress OR [b] of 2 is tracing out an expanded flat.
[2] Under this count, wave 1-down took 47/48 trading days. For reference only, wave 2 so far has take 1/3 of the time. 2/3 time equivalent of wave 1 will push a potential turn date out to 8/16-8/17.
[3] To match this scenario, the VIX will be tracing out the final (c) of [y] of 2-down as indicated in Chart 4.