Market Timing Update (7/6/10 Close)

This morning's overnight low is critical to maintaining any bullish potential beyond a few days.
Chart 1 updates the top counts in the Sept SPX mini- The primary (bearish) count places today's intraday high as (iv)-up of [i]-down within P3. The bullish count place the overnight low as [b]-down of 2-up within P3, with [c]-up of 2-up likely exceeding the June 21st high to come.

Chart 2 offers a squiggle count of the Sept SPX mini - So far, we most likely have a five up from the overnight low and a small-degree five down from today's intraday high. So both the bullish and the bearish counts are in the running. However, the immediate direction is down on both counts. Some overnight weakness and a down open tomorrow morning are likely.

The wave structure in the SP500 cash index (Chart 3) offers more support for the bearish count, unless one assumes truncation in the fifth wave.