Thursday, July 15, 2010

Market Timing Update (7/15/10 Close)

Wave Counts - I prefer to think that the market is finishing up [c]-up of an expanded flat 2-up OR [a]-up of 2-up.

But Chart 1 and Chart 2 update the top counts in the SP500 cash index. Chart 3 and Chart 4 updates these counts in the Sept SPX e-mini.

The immediately bearish counts (i.e. [ii]-up of 3-dn OR B-up of ABC-(X)-ABC OR [iv]-up of an LD 1-dn) are not totally out, yet. But for these counts to survive, the market needs to turn down immediately and the VIX needs to turn up soon as well. However, my preferred count of the VIX (Chart 5) casts challenges on the immediately bearish counts in stocks.