Friday, April 2, 2010

MTU Weekend Ed. - Projections (4/2/10 close)

[Updated 4/3/10 9PM - added discussion on VIX]

Bottom line:
One particular count suggests that the market is within days and points of a P2 top. Given the protracted nature of this rebound, more conservative counts are now able to offer tangible projections.

The wave structure and projections
The market has been in a tight sideways consolidation range over the past week. The SP-500 index rose nearly 1% this week (close to close). In response to a positive jobs report Friday morning, the futures market did rally to a new recovery high while the cash market was closed.

Chart 1 updates the primary count most recently discussed in P1P2, a look at the larger picture (3/19/10) and offers a number of important observations.

[1] The advance since March 2009 is most likely a corrective structure, i.e. a bear market rebound. The best structure to describe the advance is a triple three. While ambiguity regarding the precise location of (Y), the second three of the triple three, exists, the entire advance has been a series of corrective waves. This is evidenced by the total number of waves in each segment.

[2] In terms of wave relationship at a larger level, note that the 0.618 retracement of the Oct07-Mar09 sell-off is 1228.74, and 1245.67 is where the net advance of (Y) and (Z) of P2 equals that of (W) of P2.

[3] On a more micro level, assuming the 2/5/10 low is the start of (Z) of P2, the nearby fib targets are 1213.39 where (Z) = 0.5x(Y) and (Z) = 0.618x(Y) at 1253.25 in SP500.

However, the orange-bordered count in Chart 2 suggests that the market may be within days and points of the P2 top. That is, the rise since the 2/5/10 low is a double three/double zigzag that ends with an ending diagonal. Friday’s post-jobs-report thrust represents wave (e) of the ending diagonal. If this is the case, we may or may not see follow through in the cash market next Monday and that’ll be all. Also note the divergence between the advancing ending diagonal triangle and the flat/declining RSI on the daily chart as illustrated.

A more conservative interpretation labels the near term peak as A of (Z), to be followed by B-down and C-up of (Z). A further more conservative version describes the rise from the 2/5/10 low as a five and market breaking out of a wave [iv] triangle (of A). See the blue labeled count in Chart 2. In this case, classical projections based on the triangle width and the [v] = [i] assumption imply a target range of 1194-1222 for the end of A of (Z).

The current level of complacency is only surpassed by that during the credit mania climax
If VIX reflects the general sentiment towards risk, the current level of complacency is only surpassed by that during the final phase of the credit mania as illustrated in Chart 3. The SP500 index has been bumping around in a broad range of 600-1600 since late 1996, with peaks in 2000 and 2007 and troughs in 2002 and 2009. Chart 3 shows the evolution of the VIX index and the SP500 index during since October 1996. Historically, VIX has only been lower than its current levels (a low of 16.21) when SP500 is around its current levels (a high of 1181.43) during the 2002-2007 credit mania climax.

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