Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Market Timing Update (4/6/10 Close)

Chart 1 - The ED + ED scenario discussed in the recent updates remains a viable description of the price action in SPX, so far.








Chart 2 - According to the ED+ED count, the advance since the 2/5/10 low may be already complete or nearly so. This squiggle count suggest that c of (e) may be complete this afternoon. The risk to the upside is that this squiggle count is incorrect or of an extension.






Chart 3 - In the SPX cash index, the decline from the intraday high is likely a five on the 1-min chart. In addition to the implied additional downside potential near term, would you call that a top?







Chart 4 - The VIX index made a lower low today, not surprising given the advance in the SPX. We likely have a three wave down from yesterday's peak in VIX. There could be another lower low by the look of it, which would support further near term upside in stocks, although another lower low is not required.
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