Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Market Timing Update (5/8/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
At today's low, U.S. stocks likely have completed a five wave decline from their May high (which is a recovery high in the Dow). See Chart 1. The current sell-off is either
(1) the initial decline of a larger pullback (B wave or X wave)or an outright trend change on the bearish side, OR
(2) the end of a two-month long correction (wave 4 or wave B)on the bullish side.

Odds appear to favor the bullish interpretation, which has so far retained the "right look" across major benchmarks (Chart 2). In transports, we have what appears to be a lengthy but probably completed triangle wave (X) or wave (4). But in any case, we likely have today's low as a key pivot.

[940am] SPX update -
A well formed five wave decline from the recent high (and recovery high in the Dow). See squiggle and larger tracking counts.

[730am] ES update -