Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Market Timing Update (5/2/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
ES has traced out a zizzag decline from yesterday's high to today's low (see Chart 1 under the 1050am entry below). The decline in SPX cash and the ES tick (see this chart by td12 by td12 and his comments below) can potentially be counted as a five.
The rebound from today's low appears corrective so far (unless we have an LD or a nested 1s2s). Thus, odds favor a lower low to come.
Chart 1 shows the larger count and Chart 2 offers a squiggle count on SPX.

[1050am] SPX/ES update -
ES completed a zigzag decline so far (Chart 1). SPX cash did a 0.382 fib retrace (Chart 2). Moment of truth is at hand with this morning's low a key marker for near term direction.

[820am] ES update -
The wave structure in ES is telling.