Friday, December 23, 2011

MTU Weekend Ed. - EOY update (12/23/11 Close)

There will be no updates next week. Enjoy the rest of 2011!

SPX closed the week above its 200-day SMA. In addition, INDU rose above its December and October highs. Meanwhile, Nasdaq lagged notably.  And the VIX got "uncomfortably" low.

Chart 1 offers tracking counts which accommodate the current rally as bearish wave C-up or bullish wave 3-up.  On balance, odds appear to favor the bearish count.

The squiggle count puts SPX at the end of wave [iii] or wave (c) up for the Santa rally (Chart 2).

VIX appears to be approaching the end of a double zigzag decline (Chart 3).

Last but not least, the updated chart of triangles of maximum confusion (Chart 4) shows where the market might be if any one of those triangles is playing out.