Thursday, December 22, 2011

Market Timing Update (12/22/11)

[EOD] Stocks
See 240pm and 1255pm entries for the large and small time-frame counts - take note of the potential IHS if the rally does not fail. SPX closed just a bit shy of its 200 SMA.

Here's a count on the ES.

[240pm] SPX update
Larger working count, approaching 200 SMA, if the advance doesn't fail, note the potential IHS by the green line. See the 2nd chart below.
[1255pm] SPX update
Moment of truth is upon us. Note the relative weakness of nasdaq but the relative strength of RUT. Also ES is yet to make a higher high at the moment.

[1145am] DAX at the close
DAX at MA50 (chart 1) with a messy near term squiggle (chart 2)

[635am] ES update
Deep retrace. Let's see if it can push to a higher high. It's still in the base channel and within the scope of a wave 2/B rebound. The chart to the right offers the big picture count.

[630am] DAX update
DAX relatively much weaker than SPX/ES in terms of its most recent upward retrace which is still slightly shy of the 0.618 fib (Chart 2).