Monday, December 12, 2011

Market Timing Update (12/12/11)

[1120pm] GDOW -
Looking to GDOW for clues reveals that all (parts of the world) is not well.

A visual five-down from Dec 5th high hints at near term lower lows.
The December high is a hurdle to overcome based on this bearish count. The connecting wave B is not so good looking, but the larger ABC structure does not suffer from truncation.



[EOD] Stocks -
The SPX cash index hints at a completed double three (Chart 1 blue). But ES could use at least small degree 5th wave down to a lower low (Chart 2, black) that may or may not come (Chart 2, green).  Note that GOLD could use a small degree 5th wave down to a lower low as well.


Bonds (slightly higher) and VIX (actually lower) have not been confirming potential for extended decline in stocks so far.  Probably the market is resting its hope on the Fed tomorrow.  Let's see.

Conclusion,
bullish - leave room for an EDT wave [c] (Chart 1, blue alt).
bearish - this is a 1/2/(i)/(ii) setup, enjoy the slide.  (Chart 1 and Chart 2, red).

See this chart under the 1225pm entry for the larger count.



[130pm] INDU squiggles -
Potential end of an ABC decline from the nominal high based on the bullish count. See 2nd chart below and excuse the degree label inconsistency. Further price action will reveal if it is more bearish - i.e. 1/2/1/2.
[1225pm] ES update -
The wave structure in ES has finally cleared up.


[1125am] NDX update -
positive divergence between NDX and SPX. (Partial) gap fill likely. See 2nd chart below.
[1045am] DAX update -
Blue - double three approaching its end.
Red - expanded flat rebound following an LD-down or more bearish 1/2/1/2 setup


[8am] DAX, ES update -
DAX - The preferred / anticipated decline in DAX is playing out.  See "... so goes the world (12/9/11)". Will it truncate or extend?
ES - A small degree 5-down from the overnight high on the squiggles.
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