Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Market Timing Update (11/1/11)

[EOD] Stocks -
Primary options are [ii]-down of 3-up, X-down of 2-up, and 3-down (Chart 1). The decline from the high appears to be 7 waves so far (Chart 2), with INDU breaking into a lower low during the PM sell-off and AM low in SPX intact. Sometimes, the anticipated 5th wave never comes and sometimes counts are rushed. But the bullish divergence on the 30-min frame (Chart 1) should be noted.

Also, VIX surged 4.81 index points (+16.06%). Whether it is the start of another bull run or the end of a small-degree expanded flat remains to be seen (Chart 3). It's prudent to monitor both options.
[130pm] DAX update and SPX squiggles -
see the 2nd chart under the 1110am entry for updated SPX squiggles
[1110am] SPX squiggles -
5 or 7 waves down from the top in SPX cash, hope to be able eliminate some counts later today.
[940am] Euro update -
Regarding the appreciation of the euro in October, is it a better five (black) or better three (red)? You be the judge. See the 2nd chart below.

[920am] NQ update -
Expanded flat, rare expanding EDT, topped?
[830am] DAX, ES update -
DAX - retracing at least a five up since late September, possibly a flat since mid September
ES - at least a near term trend reversal, prudent to leave room for a complex wave (2)/(B) rebound as discussed in Points of Recognition (10/28/11).
Green tracks the immediately bullish count as [ii]-down of 3-up. Blue/Red track the bearish count.
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