Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Market Timing Update (11/23/11)

[EOD] Stocks -
Stocks have a shot at at least a local local (end of five-down from the Nov high) as evidenced by Chart 1 (transports) and Chart 2 (ES, green).

Chart 3 shows how a decent sell-off into the close today may be the "final" small degree fifth wave. Note that the low in ES ended at the mid-channel line. The near term low is the low based on the green count. The black count has (iv)-up and (v)-down yet to come.

It is informative to keep an eye on the larger picture (Chart 4). ES has retraced near 0.618 fib of its Oct. advance. No hint of intermediate term direction yet.  Directions?  yes. See big picture scenarios in  Keep it simple (11/18/11).

All the best to those who observe the Thanksgiving holiday. And best wishes for the rest too.

[315pm] ES squiggle update -
Going back to where we started the day -
Green - low is likely in.
Black - (iv)-up then (v)-down to conclude [v]-down

[1150am] DAX, Transports update -
DAX closed at its low of the day.
Look to transports for clarity. Small degree 3rd wave should extend if TRAN drops below 4554.60 (current low 4565.94). Otherwise a bounce, at least. See 2nd chart below.
[1010am] Count update INDU -

[705am] ES update -
ES retraced more than 50% Fib. Keep an eye on the bigger picture.
Squiggle-wise, role-reversal. The overnight low likely completed the green impulse down. But the green impulse down with an extended [v] is likely missing a final thrust.