Monday, June 6, 2011

Market Timing Update (6/6/11)

[EOD] Stocks -
We have indications of a near term low but without confirmation.
Note the contracting ED-like structure in SPX cash (Chart 1).
Note the expanding ED-like structure in ES (Chart 2)
Note the respectable small-degree 5-up from today's low in SPX and INDU (Chart 3).

Chart 4 updates the larger count. So far we have an [a]-[b]-[c] decline from the high, with [c]=
1.029[a] in SPX. As mentioned in Thoughts on Long Term Counts (6/3/11) and further confirmed by today's price action, recent decline has the form and the personality of a third wave or a C wave. So the jury is still out.

[245pm] Squiggle update (SPX) -
No change to the larger count (see 1130am entry), with blue [y]=blue [w].

[1130am] Count update (SPX) -

[8am] Overnight update (ES,DX) -
ES retracing 0.618 of the recent three-up at the moment. DX in an expanded flat retrace or reversal?