Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Market Timing Update (6/15/11)

[EOD] Stocks -
The first chart updates the bearish count discussed in yesterday's update. Please see comments in the 145pm entry for the "complete" picture.

If the squiggle low is not in, and assuming the proposed wave [v] does not extend, additional downside potential is about 10 points in SPX/ES = size of wave (i) of [v] and the triangle-like wave (iv) of [v].
[3pm] Squiggles (ES, SPX) -
Squiggles to go with the larger count in the 145pm entry

[145pm] Count update (INDU) -
To follow up on the bearish count discussed in Yesterday's update, it appears that we have a 5-down from the May high with [v] about equal to [i] (Chart 1)- will adjust the count if the decline extends - for example, an extended [v].

It does not change the larger count options at the moment (Chart 2)-
bear - an initial five down
bull - an expanded / running flat since the Feb high.

[7am] Overnight update (ES,DX,TNX) -