Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Market Timing Update (6/14/11)

[830pm] From a bearish perspective -
Stocks: The most bearish count - nested 1s and 2s, valid, has decent look - has the market initiating iii of an extended (v) of [iii] of 1-down. See notes on the chart. Other bearish counts can be built from this count as well.

The the RED [3] of iii of (iii) of [iii] of 1-down is an even more bearish count, but holds the same message. The issue with the RED count is that red [2] retraces deeper than red ii of (iii).

These structures are most easily seen in INDU. One can superimpose SPX behind INDU and get a feel of the these counts.

Bonds: A decent (at least near term) reversal in long term Treasury yields.

[EOD] Stocks -
Today's sizable rebound, with decent internals, has the potential to kick off the next phase of advance, be it wave D of the large triangle or an advance to new recovery highs (Chart 1).

From today's intraday high, SPX has traced an impulse wave down (Chart 2). It's possible that the decline is all of wave [C] of a small-degree wave iv (Chart 3 on ES, green), but odds favor some additional pullback (Chart 3, blue) whether today's high is the end of the first five up or just its wave iii.

[750am] Overnight update (ES) -