Thursday, February 17, 2011

Market Timing Update (2/17/11)

[EOD] stocks -
It pays to keep an eye on the larger count scenarios

Chart 1 presents a number of near term tracking counts. From today's low, one can count a completed five-wave advance. However, the decline from the high is yet to prove itself. So we leave room for the possibility that a small-degree 4th wave may still be in progress (see Chart 2).

In stock futures (ES and YM), the proposed ED (see 750am entry) tracks well. We have two top near term scenarios (Chart 3) . First, the high of this advance is in per the black ED. Second, today's high is wave c of the green ED, with one more down-up subdivision left. We want to leave room for both.

[1045am] Count update (SPX, NDX)-
This count on the cash indexes (which is the one discussed in yesterday's update) is applicable to NQ as well, but not to ES and YM (- the proposed ED on ES and YM is still tracking).
[820am] Overnight Update (USD)-
It'll be interesting to see a [iii] of 3 in DX, can it deliver?

[750am] Overnight Update (stocks)-
The tracking count is a potential ED in YM and ES, but a regular five in NQ. Note that the YM/ES and NQ counts are somewhat out of sync, so beware of the downside as well as the upside potential.