SP500 IndexA five-wave advance since the July low in SPX is approaching its end, in the sense that Friday’s low is most likely either wave (a) of [iv] of 5 based on the blue count or even the end of wave [iv] of 5 based on the green count (Chart 1). One more upswing as [v] of 5 will conclude the advance since the July low.
Nasdaq 100 Index
NDX has already exceeded its 2007 top and has a different long term wave structure (Chart 2). Eventually, NDX is likely to reach the 2460 area where wave [Y] and [W] reach equality as indicated. However, the end of minor wave 3 is fast approaching (Chart 3).
10-year YieldThe sideways consolidation since mid-November in 10-year yields counts well as a fourth wave – minute wave [iv] of minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (1)-up since the October low (Chart 4). If so, 10-year yields are poised to climb higher to finish minor wave 3.
Gold (in USD)
Gold’s price has been range bound since November. It counts well as a fourth wave consolidation and likely a triangle (Chart 5, blue count). If so, Gold will make new highs towards the upper trend channel line (Chart 6).
The bearish alternative count (red), which suggests a top, is less ideal with respect to the general wave form and a truncated and tiny final fifth wave. Nevertheless, this count is worth tracking if the recent low is breached.
USD IndexChart 7 presents two near term counts for the USD index from its November low. The blue count places the USD index at early stages of a bullish impulse wave advance, whereas the red count tracks a corrective rebound. It is too early to tell which is playing out. However, odds favor the USD index making a run at the upper channel line under both counts. In addition, the largest component of the USD index, EURUSD, has recently broken a key near term support around 1.2974. Thus, continued near term strength in the USD index is likely.
