Thursday, January 13, 2011

Market Timing Update (1/13/12)

[EOD] The decline from the overnight high in ES counts well as a corrective double-zigzag so far. The primary count is that wave (iv) of [v]5 ended at the PM low (Chart 1). NDX is in a similar position (Chart 2). The recent low in the USD index held, but just barely. The decline in Gold is likely a small degree B wave or 2nd wave (off an LD).

However, leave room for the more bullish count (green count - Chart 3 and Chart 4) as inspired by the wave structure in INDU - as it is logically sound.
In INDU (cash index as well as futures), the recent low occurred on Jan 10th instead of Jan 7th, leaving little ambiguity regarding the end of wave [iv] of 5. Also, today's PM low in YM/INDU overlapped the proposed wave (i) high (but not so in ES/SPX), raising the possibility of an extended wave (iii) of [v] (in both INDU and SPX).

[12pm] Count update (ES) -

[842am] ES update -
Depending on which count,the black or the green, tracks. Looks like a five-up from the Jan 10 low is complete.
[740am] Overnight update -
A potential 4th wave triangle in ES. The primary count is that it is iv of (iii)[v] as indicated, with the alt being (iv) of [v]. NQ is in a similar position.