Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Market Timing Update (11/23/10)

[8pm] ES
Overlapping of potential w1 and w4 supports the immediately bullish potential or a terminal ED before a bounce. see the 4pm update.

[4pm] Stocks
There's no resolution yet regarding whether the decline from the Nov. high is the beginning of a larger trend change or a corrective minor wave 4 pullback. But ...

... within the bearish count (red), today's decline is more likely to be (b)-down of [ii]-up rather than (i)-down of [iii]-down.

... within the bearish count (dark), today's decline is either [c]-down of minor wave 4-down or [ii]-down of minor wave 5-up. In other words, minor wave 4-down is zigzag- (or double-three)- like or is already over.

If so, both the bullish and bearish counts suggest a meaningful rebound, after perhaps some additional decline which likely to be swift but moderate (as a potential small degree triangle may be developing).

This additional decline may or may not be required if minor wave 4 is indeed over. Note that outside of SPX and INDU, today's decline in other indexes is not as deep.

While the triangle or flat option for minor wave 4-down are attractive with respect to alternating with minor wave 2-down, it appears to be taking too much time to fully develop.

Chart 1 and Chart 2 offer the large count as well as a squiggle count on the ES.

Real Time Update archived at MTU Real Time.