Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Market Timing Update (7/7/10 Close)

Yesterday's low held and the market managed a 3+% advance with decent internals. We have a zigzag from the low so far (see Chart 2 on the Sept SPX mini).

The primary counts (Chart 1)
[Red-P3] Wave [ii]-up of 3-down is in progress
[Grey-not P3] B-up of ABC-(X)-ABC is in progress
There's likely be some lingering upside potential under the primary counts.

Alternative counts - wild card counts
[Blue-P3] Wave 1-down since the April high has just ended, tracing out a 2+ month-long leading diagonal.
[Green-P3] Wave 2-up, which is tracing out an expanded flat - is not done yet. The recent bottom is [b]-down and the current rebound is [c]-up. In the time dimension, 2-up and 1-down will reach time-parity under this interpretation, and the [c]-up rally should be strong and swift.

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