Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Market Timing Update (7/28/10 Close)

[1130PM]Thoughts on the bearish count- If some kind of top is indeed in, and note that the SP500 cash index and the futures have somewhat different structures. The SPX futures could be developing in a series of 1s and 2s down as highlighted in the 4PM update, the SPX cash index could be tracing out an initial LD down, as corroborated by the RUT cash index (See Chart on the Right).

[4PM] As Chart 1 shows, the decline since from the recent top has been a three so far - unless it is i/ii/[1], but the decline is a bit large to my liking to call it a iv.

Thus I'll call the pullback as (iv) of [c] of 2 for the moment (Chart 2). Note that the pullback has halted, at least for now, at the text book target support following an ED as well as an extended 5th wave.

Another more bullish possibility is that the pullback is only [2] of (iii) of [c] of 2. This is a lower probability scenario given my preferred count in the VIX (Chart 3).