Thursday, July 22, 2010

Market Timing Update (7/22/10 Close)

Announcement - In case you missed my note on "a bullish perspective" posted late last night, you can read it here. (Please click on the link.)

Larger picture wave counts (Chart 1) - The top two counts say that today's sharp advance is EITHER (iii) of [c] of 2-up (GREY, near term bullish) OR (ii) of [iii] of 3-down (RED, bearish). Given the very deep retrace up, the burden is on the immediately bearish count to deliver tomorrow.

Squiggle projections (Chart 2) - The best interpretation of the squiggles is that the market just finished a small degree 4th wave and the final small degree 5th wave will push the market to higher highs overnight and tomorrow.

Using the Sept SPX mini, one notices that wave iii in Chart 2 is shorter than wave i. Thus, we are able to project a wave v cap of 1105.50 in the mini. Wave v is 0.618 x at 1097.86, which should narrowly save the bearish count where the mini cannot exceed 1099.25.
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