Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Market Timing Update (7/13/10)

[930PM] SPX/mini squiggle update - still missing (5) of [5].

[4PM Stocks]
Technicals - Stocks advance on the 7th day since the recent low on decent internals but declining volume. SPX is right around its 50-day SMA.

Has the VIX made a "truncated" bottom today? Possibly but odds favor it making fresh lows (Chart 1), possibly lending marginal support to the near term bullish counts in stocks (e.g. [c] or [a] of 2-up under P3).

Wave counts - The top counts highlighted here in recent days continue to track the market well (Chart 2 and Chart 3), with the 6/21/10 high remaining as an important differentiating point.

Near term squiggle count - Chart 4 and Chart 5 offer an update on the SPX Sept e-mini squiggle counts. It appears that [5] of v since the 7/5/10 low is in progress. Expect a near term reversal once it has run its course. See charts for target projections.