Thursday, April 8, 2010

Market Timing Update (4/8/10 Close)

The impulse wave advance from today's low may support a near term bullish count, while declining volume during today's advance and near term overbought technical readings raise questions to such interpretations. The bullish and bearish counts are highlighted below.

On the bullish side, especially in the cash index, the post-triangle thrust is most likely extending. Today's advance is the third wave within this structure (Chart 1 - blue). At a lower probability, SPX may be in the final small degree fifth wave of the thrust (Chart 1 - red).

Chart 2 (blue labels) offers a squiggle count of today's price action in SPX cash, which may be a yet to be completed impulse wave.

On the bearish side, today's rise is wave C of an expanded flat which is most likely complete at today's high as indicated by Chart 2 (red labels). The rebound may be an (x) of B of (Z) (Chart 3 red) or ii of (iii)-down in an impulse wave decline (Chart 3 blue) . Note the rising volume during yesterday's sell-off and the declining volume during today's advance in the mini market (Chart 3).

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