Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Market Timing Update (4/28/10 Close)

In the large cap indices at least, the market reveals little as to where the recent low is wave (c) of [iv] or (i) of a P3-like scenario. So I continue to discuss both scenarios here. The rest of the week should be telling, hopefully.

In SPX, the wave structure has so far been reasonably text-book style. The challenge is that the rebound counts either as an impulse up or a regular upward flat. As such, the two counts track each other very closely with exceptions at very small degrees which is inherently ambiguous.

Either way, I'd expect a pretty deep retracement/rebound as a third wave up is most likely in progress according to either count.

Chart 1 - Two top counts in the SPX since the Feb low (updated)
Chart 2 - Wave counts of price action since the recent top.
Chart 3 - Squiggle count of today's rebound.

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