Monday, April 19, 2010

Market Timing Update (4/19/10 Close)

In terms of the near term wave count, I see three competing possibilities. The validity of each count depends very much on whether one interprets the initial advance from the low is impulsive or corrective. See the portion of Chart 1 as indicated by the circle.

Chart 2 highlights the three competing counts.
[Red-bearish] Wave (i)-down from the recent peak concluded at today's low. Wave (ii)-up is an upward flat and is in its late stages.
It's also possible to mark the first low of the day as (i), and call wave (ii) an expanded flat. The latter count suggests relatively more upside potential for (ii)-up.

[Blue-ultimately bullish] Wave B-down of (Z) is in progress. Today's advance is (B)-up of B. (C)-down of B should start this week at levels below the prior peak.

[Green-immediately bullish] Today's low is the end of wave [iv] with respect to the 2/5/10 low. Chart 3 illustrates the larger wave structure that accommodates this interpretation. Today's low should not be violated. Technically, wave [iv] can be more complex with today's low as only the first portion of wave [iv]. In that case, the wave structure since Feb effectively becomes the same as the B of (Z) interpretation.

VIX- It should be pointed out that VIX has yet to achieve a five up from its recent low (Chart 4). The rise in VIX earlier today failed to eke out a higher high.

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