Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Market Timing Update (7/17/12)

[EOD] Stock -
At the squiggle level, today's afternoon advance has the potential to be a small-degree 5th wave out of an expanded flat 4th wave (Chart 1, red). If a pullback develops, it could be

a bullish small-degree 2nd wave,
[Interesting] a small-degree E wave (Chart 2, blue solid and dashed lines) to test today's low or test the 1330-1340 breakout area), in the spirit of More Consolidation (7/13/12).
a bearish 3rd wave (Chart 2, red)
[Interesting] a trend change following a truncated C wave (Chart 2, blue)

Also see the 1105am entry for additional discussion.

[1105am] SPX update -
Larger tracking counts.
Red - very bearish, larger flat or trend reversal
Blue - note the possibility of a truncated final C wave, but could accommodate a higher high (see the green count)
Green - at least one more higher high.
[1005am] SPX update -
The EDT in ES was complete and a breakdown followed. The cash SPX chart still leaves the possibility of an expanded flat pullback 4-th wave. Odds favor the completion of a 5-up (with a post-triangle thrust) at the AM high given the wave structure in ES. See 2nd chart below.
Top candidates for the current high are (1) A/1-up or (2) a truncated C-up (i.e. topped).
[710am] ES update -
ES wrapping up a small degree 5th wave (bullish, black, but what are the odds of a truncation at a larger degree?) or C wave (bearish, red).