Thursday, July 12, 2012

Market Timing Update (7/12/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
Today's low is likely a key pivot.

On the bearish side, until there's 1/4 overlap, the possibility of a wave 5-down remains (Chart 1, red). A more bearish 1/2/[i]/[ii] setup is another contender.
On the bullish side, the correction is likely over at today's low in the form of a simple ABC decline (Chart 1, green).

Chart 2 shows the rise from today's low as a passable five-up (blue) or a double three (red). 

[1020 am] SPX update -
Near term tracking counts. color coded. See chart
[750 am] ES update -
With the overnight sell-off in futures, cash indexes would register a five-down if they can manage a lower after the open - with the wave structure in ES and YM as a leading diagonal decline (red) or an ABC decline with C likely a wedge (black). If this interpretation is on track, a sharp rebound is likely with a target around 1350/1360 ES. See charts.