Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Market Timing Update (7/10/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
In a zigzag decline, SPX did a fib-0.618 retrace of the advance from its late June orthodox low. The current pullback is also testing the base channel trend line from the June low (Chart 1, gray lines).

The near term low has the potential to be the end of a small-degree wave (b)-down or [ii]-down (Chart 1, green), OR to a lesser extent, wave (c)-down of a more convoluted triangle consolidation (Chart 1, blue lines).

The red count in Chart 1 tracks the bearish count, which is very much alive and requires follow-through.
Chart 2 updates the Dow squiggles, which has shown a more trackable structure.

The moment of truth is near. 

[325pm] SPX update -
0.618fib zigzag retrace at the moment as wave (b), unless accelerating down. See the 2nd chart below.
[945am] INDU update -
Expanded flat rebound if the low is not in, as discussed in yesterday's EOD update.

[810am] ES update -
"Gap" is being filled.